MVP 2005 Progression Mod Update
With the new player progression system this year, there are 1200 probability values that can affect progression. I spent most of yesterday building a spreadsheet that lets me update any of those values and see the output in terms of how many players out of 100 would receive that range in any one year. So instead of manually fiddling through a file with probabilities for up/down/same by age and star ratings, then filtering that through a file that has probabilities for how much a rating would go up or down (by age and ratings range), it's all calculated automatically.Thanks to the spreadsheet and some testing today, the ratings of the position players look pretty solid compared to the default progression system. Here's a look.
The following numbers are the number of players in the ratings range. Ten teams counted (just a sample for the first pass at this). The first number is the default rosters, second number is the default rosters after 20 years with the default progression system, and third is the default rosters with the progression mod after 20 years.
Contact:
95-100: 1,43, 4.
90-94: 9, 18, 8.
85-89: 18, 32. 15.
80-84: 25, 26, 22.
Power:
95-100: 2, 19, 3.
90-94: 1, 8, 8.
85-89: 16, 18, 9.
80-84: 23, 31. 18.
So while it's not perfect, it looks reasonably solid for a first pass, and tomorrow we're moving on to adjusting pitchers, because their ratings get quite inflated with the default progression system as well.
This should be ready for Opening Day. That's the plan, at least. I can still add additional testers if you're interested. Just hit the "e-mail me" link in the upper right-hand corner of this page.
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