Wednesday, August 09, 2017

North Korea

This is not a political post. If it had a tag, the tag would "watch the hell out". This is also not a normal subject in this space, and we'll return to normal tomorrow.

Today, though, let's talk about this: if you have money in the market right now, watch out.

Why? Because things with North Korea are getting very strange very quickly.

A quick review.

Six months ago, the North Koreans were considered buffoons. They were The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight, and to some degree, that's what they've always been.

Suddenly, in six months, they've become scientific geniuses, even allegedly able now to put a miniaturized nuclear device inside a missile that could theoretically strike a good portion of the world.

Does that make any sense? No. Is it even possible? Probably not.

However, in this era, what the United States will do before they launch a military strike is go through a period of extreme puffery to make the target seem suitably dangerous.

That's what happened before the Iraq war.  That appears to be what's happening here.

I'm not talking about a military invasion with lots of troops. A military strike or intervention would almost certainly be an air campaign. It would not be for the purpose of destroying the nuclear arsenal, because that is most likely deep, deep underground in bunkers that cannot be reached by weapons.

It would, instead, be to destroy North Korean military infrastructure and capability.

North Korea is of tremendous geographical importance to China, because it provides them a sizable border from South Korea. It's a critical territory.

And yet, China isn't saying anything.

Does that make any sense? No.

It would make sense, though, if China was using North Korea as a giant honey pot. So they would allow an attack on North Korea because it would then justify other actions that China wants to take.

That's concerning.

Even more concerning, the information coming out of the U.S. right now is contradictory at almost every turn. Presidential advisors said today that the president spoke "off the cuff" yesterday when he warned North Korea that they would be met with 'fire and fury'.

Really? Has anyone in recorded history every used the phrase 'fire and fury' off the cuff?

No, they have not.

The only conclusion that accounts for all these conflicting facts is this: the principal actors involved want military action to happen.

That would account for the inflammatory rhetoric from the U.S., the inflated threat assessments, and the curious silence from China.

And if that happens, no matter the outcome, it will rock the markets. Hard.

Please watch out.

[UPDATE: Here's a New York Times Article that again cites "intelligence experts" in regards to North Korea's current nuclear capability. Also, please note that I'm not saying North Korea has no nuclear devices. They clearly do. What's at issue is whether they have a delivery method for those devices that constitute a real danger, and how the U.S. has escalated the assessment of that threat in the last few months.]

Tomorrow: back to our usual silliness.

Site Meter