The New Embargo
Beginning today, I'm starting an embargo on two subjects: the poor quality of EA games (in general) and the Wii wiping the floor with the PS3.After this post.
I won't write about them again until something changes the equation, because right now, those equations are fixed. They are (and this is a highly questionable use of mathematics):
EA Games=(90% mediocre)+(10% above average)
Interest in Wii-80%=Interest in PS3
Here are a few data points as we close these topics out.
First off, on EA. Take a look at this note at the end of an article over at The Street.com:
Sector heavyweight Electronic Arts, meanwhile, has been recently criticized for the falling quality of its games by an analyst who cited a ranking in gamerankings.com, a Web site that averages game scores from print and online publications.
That analyst was Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson.
My only question: where have these guys been? We covered this (even using gamerankings.com) in April here. It's not like I expect these guys to actually play games (although I know some of them do), but gamerankings.com is readily available data and incredibly easy to use. At least Evan Wilson eventually got there--but where is everyone else?
Argh!
Second, on the Wii and PS3. There's been so much coverage of the launches (and post-launch) that I've gotten drawn into the trap of writing about it way too much. How many different ways to I need to say that the Wii is kicking the shit out of the PS3?
Well, I'm adding three little anecdotes, and then I'm going to stop. There are two EB's within walking distance of where I work, and I occasionally drop by and ask questions. Yesterday I stopped by EB #1 (very nice manager, highly knowledgeable) and asked him how business had been. He said "You mean besides getting a phone call every five minutes asking if we have the Wii in stock?"
This morning I dropped by EB #2 (which opens at 9 a.m.), and there were twelve people in line by the register. Camped out--chairs, etc. I asked the manager what they were waiting for, and he said "Why do you even have to ask? The Wii!" Peopl were camping out for a shipment that was coming in some time before noon.
I asked him how many calls he was getting about the PS3, and he said "We're not." This particular manager tends to exaggerate at the tails, so I'm sure it's not really zero calls, but I also don't think it's many, either.
Third anecdote. People are still waiting in line for hours in Austin to get a Wii. They're camping out in the pre-dawn hours and waiting. And waiting. And waiting.
This is what I wrote back in May:
Every single person who is loyal to Nintendo (and there are millions) will buy the Wii. Every single one. They have successfully captured 100% of their base.
And you know what other base they’ve captured? Every single kid in the world. Is any kid going to want to use a regular controller after being able to dance around and make dozens of different gestures with the Wii controller. NO.
I said last week that I believed the price point would be $249, but incredibly, that may have been too high. There is widespread speculation this week that the Wii will actually come out at $199.
How many will they sell? Every single one they can make. If they make five million for a worldwide launch, they’ll sell five million. If they make ten million, they’ll sell ten million. There is an inexhaustible demand for a $199 console with a completely unique method of control.
Well, I'm certainly an ass when it comes to understanding realistic launch quantities.
Anyone who was at E3 and was paying attention would have seen exactly the same things I did--I had no special insight. All it took was two functioning eyes.
Here's the other thing: I was still wrong. Incredibly, I underestimated the demand for the Wii. I never thought people would be waiting 5+ hours weeks after launch to get one. Even I didn't think it would be that crazy.
When the PS3 drops $100 in price, so that the 20GB unit is $399, I'll buy one. Even one great game would make it an easy decision, because I have very poor impulse control. Very poor.
At some point, Sony will assess this situation (if they haven't already) and realize that they have a deeply flawed and wholly unworkable strategy. And, I assume, they'll adjust. In the meantime, though, there's no reason to keep writing about how screwed up they are.
I'll still write about individual Wii games. And when I do get a PS3 (after the price drop), I'll be sure to let you know. But no more state of the industry posts until the state of the industry changes.
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