Wednesday, July 11, 2007

E3 Post #3: Nintendo and Sony Take Turns Announcing Nothing*

*with the exception of a new PSP, which looks quite tasty but isn't the focus of what I cover.

I think the theme coming out of these E3 press conferences is that the "new" E3 isn't very important.

The single most important thing Nintendo announced was a game called "Wii Fitness," which will sell five million copies worldwide while gaming industry analysts scratch their heads in total confusion.

You're laughing as you read that, but just wait.

Apart from the redesigned PSP (I quite liked it), Sony's biggest PS3 news was not a new exclusive, but the news that they hadn't lost the exclusive for Metal Gear Solid 4. Tretton also announced, breathlessly, that sales in the U.S. had doubled since the announcement of the price drop.

Holy shit. They are in the toilet.

Do the math. That's not a permanent bump--yes, it's definitely going to increase sales, but that first week (and first month) is going to be higher than what happens afterwards. So, flushed with success, Tretton seems to not understand that doubling 80k monthly sales gets them to---160k.

For one month. That's a peak.

Which is nowhere for a company trying to sell 100 million units. For Sony, that's Suck City.

That means the "settled" effect of the price cut will probably boost them from 20,000 units a week in the U.S. to 30,000. In other words (like I said a few days ago), a closer last.


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