Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Welcome To My Virus

I've been sick all day (stomach). I think I've been reading Blog for the Sports Gamer
( too often--between Todd's plague, Bill's blown out ankle, and Dan's blizzards, I probably caught something electronically.

Here's a quick update on the MVP player progression project. We're at 400+ simmed seasons now and have a test group of eight, including myself. We can mathematically model changes in probabilities and how they affect ratings on the position player side without having to sim. That's a big enhancement, because we're moving on to position players shortly and should be able to adjust probabilities with a very high degree of precision.

There are some frustrations on the pitcher side. Certain files aren't influencing the ratings that I expected them to, and I'm scrambling as I try to figure out why. The changes we've made are a significant improvement over the default values in the game, but I want them as accurate over time as the position player's ratings should be. It's one thing to match a general distribution (for instance, to have the 'right' number of pitchers in a certain ratings range), but it's another thing entirely to have them aging realistically as well. Without both, it's not really accurate. So we're still working on that.

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